Insightful Investing Newsletter January 2004

2003 Market Recap

It’s about time, that’s what investors were saying about 2003, as stock turned in their first positive performance since 1999. In spite of this, most investors are still down over the last 3-year and 5-years time periods.

The Technology heavy NASDAQ 100 had a banner year, gaining almost 50% to lead the stock market higher. A strong 4th quarter by Small Cap stocks was not enough to overtake technology stocks for this year’s performance honors, but it was more than enough to maintain runner up results.

The falling dollar helped International stocks turn in the top results not only for December, but for the 4th quarter as well. A 32% return for the year was even better than the 29% of the S&P 500.

While Growth stocks started the market rolling early in 2003, a strong finish by Value stocks helped them be the leading investment style once again.

Steady interest rates in the 4th quarter helped Real Estate stocks continue to perform well as they ended the year with gains of 36%. This also helped bonds stage a small rebound to finish the year up just over 5%, not bad considering the strong run up they had in the last couple of years.

4th Quarter 2003 Fund Review

Letting your investment dollars travel overseas proved to be the most profitable place to have you’re your money in the 4th quarter, as International funds returned 16%. Vanguard International Value (VTRIX) was this quarter’s leader on our watch list with almost a 20% return. It was followed by Julius Baer International Equity (BJBIX) with a 17% return.

Back in the USA, Small Cap Value funds were not far behind, returning over 15% for the year. Babson Enterprise (BABEX) was the leading domestic stock fund that we are followed.

We found it interesting that while the S&P Value Index outperformed the S&P Growth Index in 2003, Growth mutual funds actually outperformed value mutual funds at all market capitalization levels. Once again, small and mid cap fund mangers did a better job of stock picking than large cap managers. This confirms our belief that the right choice of a Small Cap manager is an important asset allocation consideration, while an index fund may be all you need for the Large Cap portion of your portfolio.

Even as the 1-year return of 55% for the average Technology mutual fund was better than the other categories on our watch list, manager choice was critical since the range of returns on these funds was all over the board. In contrast, most Real Estate funds returned close to the 36% performance of the typical Real Estate fund.

While the average Stock fund gained at least 10% for the quarter, the average Bond fund almost picked up enough to make up for its 3rd quarter loses. As expected, the improving economy helped High Yield Bonds. An average gain of over 5% was slightly better than most bond funds for the entire year. Fidelity Capital & Income (FAGIX) was the big winner on our watch list, returning 40% for the year.

Best Mutual Funds
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